Lake Erie algae bloom forecast small this summer — but all the news isn't good (2024)

For the first time in a decade, Lake Erie is projected to have a second straight summer with a relatively mild algae bloom, scientists said in a forecast Wednesday. But that doesn't mean efforts to reduce the fertilizer loads in the lake that feed the algae are working well, they cautioned.

This year's algae bloom, which usually begins in late July and can continue into October, is expected to measure a 3 on a severity index developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and other researchers, but could range between 2 and 4.5. The largest algaeblooms since the problem returned to Lake Erie in the late 1990s were at 10 and 10.5on the severity index,in 2011 and 2015, respectively.

Lake Erie algae bloom forecast small this summer — but all the news isn't good (1)

"You'd actually have to go back to 2007 to see something similar" as the two consecutive mild bloom summers,said Rick Stumpf, an oceanographer with NOAA's National Center for Coastal Ocean Science.

But phosphorus loads into the vast Maumee River Watershed, a massive agricultural area and a key nutrient-loading tributary to western Lake Erie, are continuing at around their annual averages for recent years,still nowhere near targeted reduction goals. The reductions into western Lake Erie this yearappear to have more to do with lower flows on the Maumee this spring.

"We haven't had flow this lowsince 2012," said Laura Johnson, director of the National Center for Water Quality Research at Heidelberg University in Tiffin, Ohio.

"The 2021 flow is low enough to meet our (phosphorus) target loads, even at our average concentrations."

While this year's forecast is smaller than the long-term average, the long-term average is not the goal, said University of Michigan aquatic ecologist Don Scavia, a member of the forecast team.

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"We cannot just cross our fingers and hope that drier weather will keep us safe," he said.

In addition to making swimming, boating, fishing and other lake-related tourism a mucky mess, impacts from the blooms include blocked sunlight affecting aquatic organisms and fish choking with clogged gills. And when large algae blooms die, their decomposing rot can eat up much of the oxygen in the water, creating hypoxic dead zones where few living organisms can survive.

In western Lake Erie, blooms of blue-green algae, or cyanobacteria, can produce a toxin called microcystin, which can be harmful or even fatal to humans and animals. Unlike other types of water contamination, boiling the water doesn't help with microcystin—it only makes it more concentrated.

It was alarming levels of this toxin that caused a do-not-drink advisory that shut down the water supply for almost 500,000 people in Toledo and southeast Michigan for a weekend in August 2014.

To combat the algae blooms, Michigan and other Great Lakes states, as well as Ontario, have set a goal of reducing phosphorus loads into western Lake Erie by 40% less than 2008 levels, by 2025. Officials cite improvements in wastewater treatment and reform of farming practices, such as avoiding applying manure on frozen or saturated fields. But many believe the goals will be unattainable unless significant changes in farming practices move from voluntary to mandatory— a move both farmers and many politicians have so far resisted.

"Until the phosphorus inputs are reduced significantly and consistently so that only the mildest blooms occur, the people, the ecosystem and the economy of this region are being threatened," Scavia said.

A study led by Scavia, published in December 2019, found that with urban sources of phosphorus into western Lake Erie relatively small, it would require a 72% reduction in remaining phosphorus sources, mostly involving agricultural land practices, to meet the 40% reduction targets set by the Great Lakes states and Ontario. Agricultural reforms such as cover crops, buffer strips, wetlands and applying fertilizer below the soil surface, even if adopted extensively, would not reach those reduction targets, the study found.

The Great Lakes Business Network, a coalition of more than 170 business leaders committed to protecting the Great Lakes region from threats to the natural environment, released a reportTuesday highlighting the economic impacts of the summer algae blooms that plague western Lake Erie. The report noted that the2011 harmfulalgal bloom cost Ohio $71 million in economic losses.

"Unfortunately, the annual harmful algal bloom is now a new way of life for our region," said U.S. Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio. "Toxic algae covers our shores and threatens our future."

Contact Keith Matheny: 313-222-5021 or kmatheny@freepress.com.

Lake Erie algae bloom forecast small this summer — but all the news isn't good (2024)
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