While the short-term news is good— Lake Erie's harmful algae bloom forecast for the rest of this summer looks much better than last year— Michigan, Ohio and Ontario are failing to meet agreed-upon milestones toward reducing nutrient loads in the lakes, the fuel for the blooms.
The predicted severity index of algae blooms on western Lake Erie is 4.5, with 5 and higher considered more severe blooms, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in conjunction with Ohio State University, the University of Michigan and others, announcedThursday. The index reached 7.3 last summer, with the highest severities ever recorded being 10 in 2011 and 10.5 in 2015.
"Much of the lake will be fine most of the time," said Rick Stumpf, an oceanographer with NOAA's National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, adding that isolated areas could still encounter surfacescum on particular days in the western lake basin, especially on calm wind and wave days.
Beyond being unsightly, smelly green gunk that impacts use of the lake, Lake Erie algae blooms can be harmful. Theyare made up of cyanobacteria, also called blue-green algae, that can produce the toxin microcystin, potentially harmful to both humans and wildlife. Unlike other types of water contamination, boiling water does not reduce the risk.
Some 500,000 people in and around Toledo had their water supplies disrupted for a weekend in August 2014 because of high levels of microcystin-producing algae in western Lake Erie, near the city's water intakes. That prompted state, federal and provincial governments to redouble efforts to reduce the summer algae blooms, particularly through reductions in phosphorus, a key ingredient necessary for the blooms to grow.
But while identifiable large-scale sources of phosphorus in the waters feeding Lake Erie, such as the wastewater treatment plants at Detroit and Monroe, have seen significant reductions over the past two decades, so-called nonpoint sources of phosphorus, such as the fertilizer and manure runoff from millions of acres of farmers' fields, remain elusive to control.
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In 2015, the governor's offices inMichigan and Ohio, along with the premier of Ontario, set public goals of reducing nutrient pollution in the western and central basins of Lake Erie by 40% by 2025, with an interim goal of 20% reduction in 2020. But those goals have not been met.
Western and Central Lake Erie are projected to receive 325 tons of total "bioavailable" phosphorus— the type that supports algae growth in the lake— this spring and summer. While that sits almost exactly between the levels that reached the lake in 2018 and 2014, a 30% reduction in that amount would be required to reach the target goals the states and Ontario agreed upon, Stumpf said. It would take a 40% reduction over that level to make summer algae blooms negligible on the lake, he said.
The predicted moderate bloom shouldn't be interpreted as significant progress toward meeting the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement goal, because year-to-year changes are driven primarily by the amount of spring rain, said University of Michigan aquatic ecologist Don Scavia, a member of the forecast team. With the exception of large storms over a few days inlate May, rainfall in Ohio's vast Maumee River Watershed, a main tributary to western Lake Erie, was relatively scant.
"We can't cross our fingers and hope that drier weather will keep us safe," Scavia said.
"These blooms are driven by diffuse phosphorus sources from the agriculturally dominated Maumee River watershed. Until the phosphorus inputs are reduced significantly and consistently so that only the mildest blooms occur, the people, the ecosystem and the economy of this region are being threatened," he said.
To date, state and federal governments have mostly chosen to allow farmers to govern their runoff issues themselves, urging best management practices for fertilizer and manure application on fields.
"I'm not sure how we're going to get (to a 40% reduction in phosphorus loads) by 2025, as the states keep putting the same management practices forward that have led to where we are," said Tom Zimnicki, groundwater, surface water and agriculture program director for the Lansing-based nonprofit Michigan Environmental Council.
It's difficultbecause of the vastness of the nonpoint sources of the phosphorus, said Christopher Winslow, director ofOhio State University’s Ohio Sea Grant,one of 34NOAASea Grant programs throughout the U.S.dedicated to the protection and sustainable use of marine and Great Lakes resources.
"We're talking many millions of acres in the westernbasin," he said. "So there's got to be a lot of activities on a lot of acres."
Some of what's being asked of farmers to reduce phosphorus runoff isnot cheap nor easy to deploy, Winslow said. Practices such as utilizing cover crops to prevent erosion and runoff don't provide immediately observable reductions, but will instead take time to show positive effects.
"With my experience with many producers, there is clearly an uptick in engagement and doing best management practices in the landscape," he said.
Regardless of the year-to-year variation in severity, "when the algal blooms in western Lake Erie can be seen from space, it doesn’t take an expert to understand that this is becoming a crisis,” said Crystal M.C. Davis, director of policy and strategic engagement at the nonprofitAlliance for the Great Lakes, based in Chicago.
“Efforts are not only falling short, we also don’t have a clear accounting of how or where we are in reaching the 20% reduction goal, or how we will get to the 40% reduction goal. Lists of best management practices are nice but leaders need to provide an accounting of progress and a plan of action so the public knows where things stand and how their money is being spent."
U.S. Rep. Debbie Dingell, D-Dearborn, spoke on Thursday's web announcement of the algae bloom forecast.
"Harmful algae blooms post significant threats to human health, the environment and the economy," she said. "While early projects show the 2020 bloom in Lake Erie may be smaller than last year, the risks are just always there, and they remain high.
"We must prioritize a strong and coordinated federal response, and robust funding to all the work related to the harmful algae blooms."
Absent deep, difficult mandates to farmers, however, the effectiveness of the status quo is already in doubt.
"My biggest concern is that for the general public, the bar for them to just accept algae blooms are just going to be a thing that happens is a lower bar than the political will needed to make the kind of changes necessary to stop them," Zimnicki said.
Contact Keith Matheny: 313-222-5021 or kmatheny@freepress.com.
